Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Inflasi dan Harga Emas Dunia terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index Periode 2016–2025

Alycia Sashabil Hamidi; Muhammad Syahrulla; Marabona Munthe

doi:10.61132/keat.v3i3.2518

Authors

Alycia Sashabil Hamidi Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
Muhammad Syahrulla Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau
Marabona Munthe Universitas Muhammadiyah Riau

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/keat.v3i3.2518

Keywords:

Inflation, Interest Rate, Islamic Capital Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, World Gold Price

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation, and world gold prices on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) during 2016–2025, both partially and simultaneously. The study employs a quantitative approach using secondary monthly time-series data obtained from Bank Indonesia and Investing.com. The data were analyzed using EViews 12 through descriptive statistics, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression with first-difference transformation, t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination. The results show that changes in interest rates do not have a significant effect on changes in the JII, while changes in inflation also do not have a significant effect. In contrast, changes in world gold prices have a positive and significant effect on changes in the JII. Simultaneously, changes in interest rates, inflation, and world gold prices do not significantly affect changes in the JII. The Adjusted R-squared of 0.0171 indicates that the model explains only a limited proportion of the variation in changes in the JII. These findings indicate that JII dynamics during the study period were not solely determined by the macroeconomic variables included in the model, but were also influenced by other factors outside the model.

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