Pengaruh Pendidikan dan Pertumbuhan Penduduk terhadap Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2019–2025

Abstract

Poverty is a multidimensional development issue whose characteristics vary across districts and cities. The disparities in poverty levels within East Java Province highlight the need to investigate the underlying factors, particularly those related to education and demographics. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of Expected Years of Schooling (EYS) and population growth rates on poverty levels in all regencies and cities across East Java Province from 2019 to 2025, both individually and collectively. A quantitative approach was applied, relying on secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The collected data covered 38 regencies and cities over a seven-year period, resulting in a total of 266 observations. Panel data regression was used as the analytical technique, while the best model was selected using the Chow and Hausman tests. The research findings show that expected years of schooling has a fairly strong negative impact on poverty. A coefficient of -2.3385 means that every one-year increase in expected years of schooling is followed by a 2.3385 percentage point decrease in poverty, assuming all other variables remain constant. On the other hand, population growth is positively associated with poverty, but its effect is not significant. When tested together, expected years of schooling and population growth were found to have a significant effect on poverty. A coefficient of determination of 31.24 percent suggests that these two variables together explain.