Analisis dan Peramalan Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) Periode 2020-2025 Menggunakan Model Arima

Hildah Meliyana; Attabik Syifaul Jinan; Siti Nur Rosidah; Achmad Budi Susetyo

doi:10.61132/jiesa.v3i1.1826

Authors

Hildah Meliyana Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
Attabik Syifaul Jinan Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
Siti Nur Rosidah Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
Achmad Budi Susetyo Universitas Trunojoyo Madura

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/jiesa.v3i1.1826

Keywords:

ARIMA Model, ISSI, Stocks, Stock Prices, Time Series Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to estimate changes in the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) from 2020 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The growth of the Islamic stock market in Indonesia has increased rapidly, driven by public awareness of investments that follow sharia principles, as well as changes in macro and microeconomic conditions, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic which has had a significant impact on the financial market. This study relies on monthly ISSI data taken from official sources and analyzed with a quantitative approach using the time series method using EViews version 13 software. Statistical analysis and stationarity tests indicate that the ISSI data exhibits an increasing trend pattern and quite high volatility, so that a differentiation process is necessary to achieve stationarity. Based on the results of model testing and the selection of optimal information criteria, the ARIMA (1,1,1) model was selected as the most appropriate to capture the autocorrelation pattern and produce accurate short-term predictions. Projections indicate a stable growth trend until the end of 2025, with an estimated index of more than 8.3 million. The findings of this study indicate that the ARIMA model is an effective tool for forecasting ISSI movements and can be a strategic consideration for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers in developing sustainable investment strategies in the Indonesian Islamic stock market.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abadiyah, S., Rosyati, R., & Nurjanah, Q. (2021). Produktivitas tenaga kerja terhadap biaya dan waktu pelaksanaan pada pembangunan ruko 2 lantai. Structure, 3(2), 148. https://doi.org/10.31000/civil.v3i2.7165

Abbas, E. F., & Al-Zwainy, F. (2024). Diagnostic and identify the reasons for duration deviation in school buildings projects using root cause analysis technique. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 3097). AIP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0209893

Adhi, R. P., Hidayat, A., & Nugroho, H. (2016). Perbandingan efisiensi waktu, biaya, dan sumber daya manusia antara metode building information modelling (BIM) dan konvensional (studi kasus: perencanaan gedung 20 lantai). Jurnal Karya Teknik Sipil, 5(2), 220-229.

Al-Yami, A., & Sanni-Anibire, M. O. (2019). BIM in the Saudi Arabian construction industry: State of the art, benefit and barriers. International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, 39(1), 33-47. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBPA-08-2018-0065

Anjani, A., Bayzoni, B., Husni, H. R., & Niken, C. (2022). Penerapan building information modeling (BIM) menggunakan software Autodesk Revit pada gedung 4 rumah sakit pendidikan peguruan tinggi negeri (RSPTN) Universitas Lampung. Jurnal Rekayasa Sipil Dan Desain, 10(1), 486228. https://doi.org/10.23960/jrsdd.v10i1.2360

Azhar, S. (2011). Building information modeling (BIM): Trends, benefits, risks, and challenges for the AEC industry. Leadership and Management in Engineering, 11, 241-252. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LM.1943-5630.0000127

Azhar, S. (2011). Building information modeling (BIM): Trends, benefits, risks, and challenges for the AEC industry. Leadership and Management in Engineering, 11(3), 241-252. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LM.1943-5630.0000127

Brunner, I. P. W. T., & Dhipawardana, M. D. (2011). Pengaruh perhitungan volume pekerjaan terhadap margin profit sebagai acuan penentuan harga satuan pekerjaan, studi kasus pada pekerjaan Rs. Boromeus Bandung. Jurnal Arsitektur Universitas Bandar Lampung.

Eastman, C. M. (2008). BIM handbook: A guide to building information modeling for owners, managers, designers, engineers, and contractors. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470261309

Forcael, E., Ferrari, I., Opazo-Vega, A., & Pulido-Arcas, J. A. (2020). Construction 4.0: A literature review. Sustainability, 12(22), 9755. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229755

Hafizhah, J., Kusuma Respati Aji, F., Heston, Y. P., & Abda, J. (2024). Penerapan BIM untuk perbandingan volume dan biaya konstruksi tangga darurat gedung Anex proyek pembangunan kompleks perantaraan pasar baru. Jurnal Inovasi Konstruksi, 3(1), 26-34. https://doi.org/10.56911/jik.v3i1.67

Hendrickson, C. (1998). Project management for construction. Carnegie Mellon University.

Jumas, D., & Tela, N. (2017). Analisa kebutuhan standardisasi pengukuran kuantitas (standard method of measurement) pada industri konstruksi di Indonesia. Jurnal Rekayasa, 7(1), 16-26.

Kirby, L., Krygiel, E., & Kim, M. (2017). Mastering Autodesk Revit 2018. John Wiley & Sons.

Laily, F. N., Husni, H. R., & Bayzoni, B. (2021). Perbandingan perhitungan BoQ dengan menggunakan Revit 2019 terhadap perhitungan BoQ dengan menggunakan metode konvensional pada pekerjaan struktur (studi kasus: Gedung G Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Lampung). REKAYASA: Jurnal Ilmiah Fakultas Teknik Universitas Lampung, 25(2), 27-31. https://doi.org/10.23960/rekrjits.v25i2.30

Mahyuddin, R., Rachim, F., Erdawaty, M., Pandarangga, A. P., Ulfiyati, Y., Sidiq, R., & Rosytha, A. (2023). Manajemen proyek konstruksi. Yayasan Kita Menulis.

Nur Dhou, Y., Susanto, A., & Yani, J. A. (2023). Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknik Sipil 2023: ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN PERHITUNGAN METODE KONVENSIONAL DAN BUILDING INFORMATION MODELLING (BIM) TERHADAP VOLUME SERTA BIAYA PEKERJAAN KONSTRUKSI.

Sangadji, S., Kristiawan, S. A., & Saputra, I. K. (2019). Pengaplikasian building information modeling (BIM) dalam desain bangunan gedung. Matriks Teknik Sipil, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.20961/mateksi.v7i4.38475

Sidik, D. M., Handayani, N. K., & Noer, F. (2023). Analisis perbandingan volume beton dan besi tulangan pada struktur gedung 10 lantai di Kota Bandar Lampung antara metode konvensional dan building information modeling (BIM) Autodesk Revit. In Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknik Sipil UMS (pp. 591-597).

Wahyudi, B. H., Peli, M., & Zaitul, Z. (2025). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat akurasi perkiraan biaya pada tahap konstruksi gedung di Pemerintahan Kota Sungai Penuh. Jurnal Talenta Sipil, 8(2), 744. https://doi.org/10.33087/talentasipil.v8i2.884